Banks Must Expand Their Payment Playbooks Before Customers Move On

Banks have spent years adapting to new payment methods, but the next phase of innovation is less about replacing existing rails than supporting a growing ecosystem of them.

Juniper Research’s Consumer Payments Tech Horizon 2026 argues that the strongest-performing payment technologies are those that improve convenience while building on familiar infrastructure, including digital wallets, account-to-account (A2A) payments, Click to Pay, and bank-backed wallets.

Meanwhile, technologies that have generated significant attention, such as agentic commerce and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), continue to face adoption hurdles despite their long-term potential.

Key takeaway: Flexibility matters more than predicting a single winner. Institutions that build payment strategies capable of supporting multiple rails, emerging customer preferences, and new partnership models will be better positioned as the payments landscape continues to diversify.

Need to Know:

• Payment innovation is expanding rather than consolidating, requiring banks to support multiple payment experiences simultaneously.
• Juniper identifies bank-backed wallets, agentic commerce, and Click to Pay as the three payment technologies expected to experience the greatest movement over the next year.
• Digital wallets continue to evolve, but new bank-backed wallet initiatives are creating opportunities for financial institutions to reclaim a more prominent role in payments.
• Mobile money users in emerging markets are expected to reach 2.2 billion by 2030, representing more than half of the adult population.
• Real-time account-to-account payments are becoming a larger competitive force as instant payment networks mature across global markets. Global A2A payment transaction value is forecast to grow 113%, from $91.5 trillion in 2025 to $195 trillion by 2030.
• Payment strategies increasingly depend on flexible infrastructure that allows institutions to add new capabilities without rebuilding core systems.

Payment Innovation Is Becoming More Diverse

For much of the past decade, conversations about payments centered on identifying the next dominant technology. Would digital wallets replace cards? Would QR codes overtake contactless payments? Would cryptocurrencies transform consumer spending?

The reality has proven more nuanced.

Rather than converging around a single payment experience, consumers are adopting different payment methods for different situations. Contactless wallets dominate many in-store purchases. A2A payments are gaining traction where real-time payment networks have matured. BNPL continues to appeal for larger purchases, while mobile money remains central to financial inclusion across emerging markets.

Key insight:This growing diversity changes the challenge for banks. Now, success depends less on promoting one payment method and more on building infrastructure capable of supporting many. Customers increasingly expect payment experiences that fit their circumstances instead of adapting their behavior to fit a bank’s preferred channel.

That shift places greater value on modern APIs, real-time connectivity, and partnerships that allow institutions to add new payment capabilities without redesigning every customer experience.

Banks Are Finding New Ways into Digital Wallets

Digital wallets remain among the strongest-performing payment technologies, but Juniper points to an interesting development: bank-backed wallets are becoming considerably more viable than they appeared only a year ago.

Historically, bank-owned wallets struggled to compete against Apple Pay and Google Wallet, particularly in North America, where consumers were already comfortable with device-native payment experiences. Several high-profile initiatives failed to gain meaningful adoption.

Europe tells a different story. Projects such as Wero demonstrate that consortium-backed wallets can gain traction when multiple financial institutions work together and leverage instant payment infrastructure. Apple’s decision to open NFC capabilities to third parties also lowers barriers that previously limited innovation from banks themselves.

Key insight:While these developments may not immediately reshape the U.S. market, they illustrate a broader lesson for retail banks. Competing with technology companies does not necessarily require building entirely new payment ecosystems. Instead, banks can create differentiated experiences by combining trusted customer relationships with modern payment capabilities.